Nigeria Spends ₦12.8 Trillion on Fuel Imports Amid Growing Local Production
Nigeria imported a staggering ₦12.8 trillion worth of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly referred to as petrol, between August 2024 and October 2025, according to a detailed analysis of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) factsheet.
The data, based on the agency’s records, shows that a total of 15.435 billion litres of petrol entered the country during this 15-month period. Using an average landing cost of ₦829.77 per litre, the financial outlay underscores the country’s heavy reliance on imported fuel despite efforts to boost local refining.
September 2024 marked the peak of fuel imports at 1.52 billion litres, coinciding with a period when domestic production was unavailable. It was closely followed by August 2024 with 1.38 billion litres and December 2024 with 1.31 billion litres.
Imports in 2025 fluctuated over the months:
- October: 1.17 billion litres
- November: 1.12 billion litres
- January: 765.7 million litres
- February: 770 million litres
- March: 889.7 million litres
- April: 861 million litres
- May: 1.19 billion litres
- June: 978 million litres
- July: 1.11 billion litres
- August: 818.4 million litres
- September: 663 million litres
- October: 855.6 million litres
These figures illustrate the volatility in import patterns, driven by both global market conditions and intermittent domestic production.
Dangote Refinery Supplies All Local PMS
During the same period, Nigeria’s local production totaled 7.208 billion litres, all supplied by the Dangote Refinery. No local fuel was available in August 2024, but production gradually ramped up over the following months:
- September 2024: 102 million litres
- October 2024: 300.7 million litres
- November 2024: 558 million litres
- December 2024: 306.9 million litres
- January 2025: 592.1 million litres
- February 2025: 694.4 million litres
- March 2025: 709.9 million litres
- April 2025: 645 million litres
- May 2025: 573.5 million litres
- June 2025: 543 million litres
- July 2025: 511.5 million litres
- August 2025: 613.8 million litres
- September 2025: 528 million litres
- October 2025: 529.48 million litres
These figures reflect a significant contribution from domestic refining, though imports still account for a large portion of the nation’s fuel needs.
Government Tariff Policies and Industry Response
In a bid to encourage local refining, the Federal Government had earlier imposed a 15% ad valorem tariff on imported PMS and diesel. The directive, implemented through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and NMDPRA, faced strong opposition from stakeholders who argued that Nigeria had not yet achieved sufficient self-sufficiency in fuel production. The government subsequently reversed the policy.
Industry experts also warned that a blanket ban on fuel imports could create a monopoly for Dangote, potentially undermining energy security and market competition.
Dangote Raises Concerns Over Operational Bottlenecks
The Dangote Refinery has highlighted delays in vessel clearance as a major operational challenge. In a letter to the NMDPRA Chief Executive, CEO David Bird described the bottlenecks as causing “unnecessary costs and inefficiencies” that affect both refinery operations and customers.
Bird emphasized that the refinery is fully capable of meeting Nigeria’s PMS demand, projecting supplies of 1.5 billion litres per month in December 2025 and January 2026, increasing to 1.7 billion litres per month from February 2026. He urged regulatory support to ensure unhindered importation of crude and feedstocks and smoother product lifting by vessels.
The CEO also proposed that NMDPRA deploy officials onsite starting December 1, 2025, to validate and publicly release daily production and stock figures, ensuring transparency.
Why Nigeria Still Relies on Fuel Imports
Experts emphasize that local production, while growing, is not yet sufficient to eliminate imports. Henry Adigun, Director at the Institute for Energy and Extractive Industry Law, noted that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) empowers the regulator to issue import licences to companies with local refining capacity or proven international trading experience, a necessary mechanism to fill supply gaps.
Adigun further explained that Dangote’s competitive pricing encourages importers to source fuel domestically when possible, but such pricing depends heavily on global crude oil trends. The refinery’s recent reduction of ex-depot petrol prices from ₦880 to ₦865 per litre was largely influenced by declining global crude prices and expectations surrounding a potential crude-for-naira agreement.
Petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare observed that the Dangote Refinery’s domestic supply has reshaped Nigeria’s downstream sector, reducing imports, enhancing market stability, and testing regulatory frameworks under the PIA 2021. Benefits include foreign exchange savings and moderated inflation, though challenges such as crude supply reliability, logistical bottlenecks, regulatory overreach, and market concentration persist.
Iledare stressed the importance of operationalizing transparent supply arrangements, enforcing PIA provisions, easing logistics bottlenecks, maintaining competition, and ensuring data transparency through public dashboards. According to him, monitoring refinery output, pricing trends, import volumes, scarcity incidents, and logistics KPIs is essential for maintaining a balanced downstream fuel market.
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