The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will record a growth rate of 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, signaling what it describes as the country’s most robust expansion in more than ten years. This optimistic outlook is contained in the Global Economic Prospects report published by the Bretton Woods institution in January 2026.
In the report, the World Bank revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 4.4 per cent, an improvement from the 3.7 per cent estimate made in its June 2025 edition. The 2027 projection was left unchanged at 4.4 per cent. According to the Bank, the revision reflects increasing confidence in Nigeria’s medium-term economic trajectory, supported by improving macroeconomic indicators, even though the economy continues to face deep-rooted structural constraints.
The World Bank explained that the anticipated expansion will be driven mainly by sustained momentum in the services sector, a recovery in agricultural production, and a gradual pickup in non-oil industrial activities. These sectors are expected to remain the main engines of growth, helping to stabilize the economy and reduce volatility linked to oil price fluctuations.
The report emphasized that Nigeria’s growing reliance on non-oil sectors highlights gradual progress toward economic diversification, a long-standing policy goal aimed at reducing dependence on crude oil exports. The Bank also pointed to ongoing policy reforms, particularly in the tax system, as well as disciplined monetary management, as critical factors supporting economic resilience and macroeconomic stability.
According to the World Bank, continued reforms are likely to enhance investor confidence, encourage private sector activity, and contribute to a further easing of inflationary pressures. While global oil prices are expected to remain relatively weak, increased oil production is projected to help cushion the impact, thereby supporting government revenues and strengthening the country’s external position.
The positive assessment comes amid signs that Nigeria’s economy is already on a recovery path. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the country’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting improved output across several key sectors of the economy.
Looking ahead, stronger performance in services and agriculture is expected to stimulate job creation, help stabilize prices, and widen the government’s revenue base over time. For investors and policymakers, the World Bank’s projections provide renewed reassurance that recent economic reforms could begin to translate into measurable gains, even as Nigeria continues to contend with fiscal pressures, infrastructure gaps, and social challenges.
Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank projects that economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by policy reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation. At the global level, the institution expects growth to moderate slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027. This represents an upward revision from earlier forecasts, attributed to slowing inflation, more stable financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and climate-related risks.
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